How do you predict hourly fuel and gas sales with precision?

At Oxalis Logistics, we have a long history of providing full planning and logistical support for our customers across the UK. Over the years, we’ve gained invaluable insights into how events impact fuel and gas demand. Our deep understanding of UK sales patterns has allowed us to apply this knowledge not only to anticipate fuel requirements but also to help new customers benefit from this expertise right from the start. We are continuously learning from patterns such as sales spikes during large-scale events like the Blackpool Lights, Le Mans and Black Friday.

From increased fuel demand at key trunk road sites on Christmas Eve to surges in premium fuel sales in Dover as car enthusiasts fill up before taking the ferry for Le Mans, we’ve fine-tuned our ability to predict when, where and how much fuel will be needed. We extend this expertise to gases too, with noticeable spikes in demand during cold weather for home heating and power stations or ahead of major sporting events like the World Cup and Euros, when CO₂ use increases significantly for beer production.

Creating a bespoke events database to predict and respond to fuel sales spikes

In response to the growing complexity of forecasting demand during significant events, Oxalis Logistics developed an innovative tool: our Events Database. This comprehensive database tracks a wide range of events, enabling our planning team to anticipate fuel and gas requirements with greater precision. By comparing historical sales data with predictive insights from local sites, drivers, and our field management team, we can forecast the supply needed for upcoming weeks, ensuring we stay ahead of demand.

As Lauren Hance, who leads the initiative, explains: “Over the years, we’ve learned a great deal about what events affect sales volumes and how we can use this knowledge to our advantage. This database allows us to proactively plan for increased demand, delivering the fuel before it’s needed and ensuring our customers are always prepared.”

The database, which has evolved over time, is updated regularly and incorporates knowledge gained from years of experience. For example, we can now accurately predict increased demand during Black Friday or as summer approaches in the Lake District, where sales soar due to the influx of tourists. This proactive approach ensures that we have the right resources in place, from staff availability to road access, and that we can communicate effectively with our clients to prepare them for any challenges that might arise.

This database was initially developed by one of our graduate students during a placement at our Huddersfield Control Centre. His work was instrumental in developing a tool which has become a key asset in our operations. It’s a testament to the exciting opportunities our graduates have in our Management Development Programme, where they get to work on impactful projects that directly benefit our clients and operations.

Improving client service with better anticipation of fuel and gas needs

The database not only helps us to record what events in society will impact sales; we also use it as the register for exceptional events that are happening at our customers’ sites. When managing deliveries to over 2800 sites, ensuring we’re keeping track of all the maintenance happening at customer premises, storage tanks out of action, or even road closures outside of these sites is a complex job. This database enables us to record all of this in one place and flag this information to our team on a daily basis so everything runs like clockwork. 

The Events Database has allowed Oxalis Logistics to move from a reactive to a proactive stance, improving our ability to manage demand and reduce operational hiccups. This level of preparedness strengthens our client relationships and enables us to serve them more efficiently, ultimately enhancing their overall experience.